Advanced Forecasting Techniques

MSc in Accounting and Finance, MSc in Accounting Taxation and Financial Management, Department of Accounting and Finance

In the first part of the course, a parametric approach to financial models is introduced. It covers equilibrium and dynamic models while analyzing various estimation methods. The predictive capability of parametric models is assessed, with a focus on the relationship between short-term and long-term forecasting horizons. Laboratory applications are primarily conducted using EVIEWS software.

The second part of the course explores the use of neural networks, the most advanced non-parametric approach, in financial applications, with an emphasis on forecasting techniques. The following topics are covered in detail:

  • Neural networks and financial innovation
  • Fundamental concepts and basic neural network models
  • Backpropagation neural networks
  • Non-parametric estimation using neural networks
  • Estimation process of a neural network model
  • Confidence and prediction intervals
  • Estimation of conditional means
  • Neural networks as an extension of multifactor models (APT and Multifactor CAPM)
  • Volatilities and correlations
  • Data preprocessing
  • Time series forecasting and classification applications
  • Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis
  • Current technologies and systems

Alongside the theoretical analysis, specialized software BPSim and MATLAB is used in a range of financial applications, including corporate financial management, securities trading, investment management, and financial risk management.

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